8/9/2023 0 Comments Nj rainfall totals 2018At the decadal scale, these two factors are equally strong. How will global climate-and even more importantly, regional climate-change over the next few decades? The actual state of the climate depends on both natural variability and human-induced change. Over climate timescales of multiple decades, however, global temperature continues to steadily increase. During a La Niña year, conditions across the southwestern United States are typically dry, and global temperatures tend to be cooler. For example, during an El Niño year, winters across the southwestern United States are typically wetter than average, and global temperatures are higher than average. 10 Over longer timescales and larger geographic regions, however, the human influence can dominate. Over shorter timescales and smaller geographic regions, the influence of natural variability can be larger than the influence of human activity. Temperature, precipitation, and other day-to-day weather conditions are influenced by a range of factors, from fixed local conditions (such as topography and urban heat islands) to the cyclical and chaotic patterns of natural variability within the climate system, like El Niño. The actual weather experienced is the result of combining long-term human-induced change with natural factors and the hard-to-predict variations of the weather in a given place, at a given time. Long-term trends and future projections describe changes to the average state of the climate. The conditions we experience in a given place at a given time are the result of both human and natural factors. 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 Instead, global annual average temperatures for the period since 1986 are likely much higher and appear to have risen at a more rapid rate than for any similar climatological (20–30 year) time period in at least the last 1,700 years. No temperature records, however, show that long-term global warming has ceased or even substantially slowed over the past decade. Over the past decade, such a slowdown led to numerous assertions that global warming had stopped. 2, 3 Sixteen of the last 17 years have been the warmest ever recorded by human observations.įor short periods of time, from a few years to a decade or so, the increase in global temperature can be temporarily slowed or even reversed by natural variability (see Box 2.1). For example, since the Third National Climate Assessment was published, 1 2014 became the warmest year on record globally 2015 surpassed 2014 by a wide margin and 2016 surpassed 2015. The last few years have also seen record-breaking, climate-related weather extremes. Global annually averaged temperature measured over both land and oceans has increased by about 1.8☏ (1.0☌) according to a linear trend from 1901 to 2016, and by 1.2☏ (0.65☌) for the period 1986–2015 as compared to 1901–1960. Long-term temperature observations are among the most consistent and widespread evidence of a warming planet.
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